The US administration yesterday Wednesday raised the prospect of a long-term blockade of Iran's ports, which would further prolong the pressure on the global economy, with a direct impact on oil prices, which have risen to a four-year high.
The war that broke out on 28 February, with the sweeping US-Israeli air bombing of the Islamic Republic, has claimed the lives of thousands of people, the vast majority of them in Iran and Lebanon, and has had repercussions that continue to shake the world economy.
Frozen by the ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on April 8, after 40 days of hostilities, the armed conflict is likely to be perpetuated, with Washington appearing to be preparing for at least a month-long blockade of Iranian ports in retaliation for Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the hydrocarbons consumed internationally normally pass.
During a meeting the day before yesterday Tuesday at the White House with leading executives of oil sector companies, participants discussed «the steps President Trump has taken to alleviate global markets and the steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if necessary and minimize its impact on American consumers,» an administration official said yesterday.
«The blockade is a little more effective than bombing», Donald Trump commented during an interview with the news website Axios.
«Prolonged deadlock»
As the prospect of a negotiated solution between Washington and Tehran seems to be receding, oil prices attest to the growing nervousness of the markets. The price of a barrel of the benchmark North Sea Brent variety topped $119, reaching its highest level since 2022, when Russia's military moved to invade Ukraine.
Analysts fear that the strait will remain locked by Tehran. Experts from DNB spoke of a «prolonged stalemate», as «the fighting has virtually stopped» but «no lasting solution is emerging».
Tehran accuses Washington of seeking the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
The US wants to exert «economic pressure» and foment «internal divisions» in order to «weaken us» with the expectation that «we will collapse from within», the powerful speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bayr Galibaf summed up, calling for «unity».
During their long meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Donald Trump against the «harmful consequences» of new US and Israeli military action against Iran, «not only» for that country «and its neighbours», but also «for the entire international community».
«Telma»
With no resolution of the conflict in sight, the US Secretary of War was subjected to a series of strong criticisms from Democrats during his first hearing in the House of Representatives since the outbreak of the war.
«Geopolitical disaster», «strategic disaster», «incompetence», «self-harm», «quagmire»: the parliamentarians did not spare harsh expressions.
The head of the US Pentagon, for his part, said that the war against Iran has cost somewhere around 25 billion dollars and justified it by asking «what is the price to ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon?»
The economic consequences of this conflict are being felt most acutely in Iran, where the currency, the rial, has reached its lowest exchange rate against the US dollar since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, according to websites that record currency exchange rate data.
In the capital, Tehran, some people expressed their fatalism without hiding it.
«The idea that we will relive the war is terrifying, but we have no hope of finding a negotiated solution,» said Ali, a 52-year-old architect who spoke to Agence France-Presse by telephone.
Soaring energy prices threaten to plunge more than 30 million people around the world into poverty, warned Alexander de Croix, the Belgian head of the United Nations Development Programme (PNUD in French, UNDP in English), in an interview with AFP.
Although the ceasefire has been extended indefinitely, the two sides have not yet agreed on the resumption of talks between them, with the first round on 11 April in Pakistan, the intermediary country.
The Iranians «had better get their wits about them, and fast!» threw Donald Trump via Truth Social.
Two more dead in Lebanon
In the other main theatre of this war, in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Shiite movement Hezbollah, which is pro-Iranian, two people, including a soldier, were killed yesterday in a new Israeli bombardment in the south, according to a staff statement in Beirut. The day before, Israeli bombing killed 19 people, including three rescuers on duty.
President Joseph Aoun called on Israel to «fully implement» the ceasefire announced by US President Trump on April 17, before any direct negotiations between the governments of the two countries, for which he said he expects Washington to set a date.
As Lebanon has been mired for years in a severe economic crisis, the World Food Programme (WFP) warns that 1.2 million citizens - in other words, more than a fifth of the 4 to 5 million inhabitants - are threatened by acute food insecurity.
US President Trump assured the Axios website yesterday that he had instructed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to order only «surgical» strikes in Lebanon to avoid a full resumption of the war with Hezbollah.
«I told Netanyahu that he should do it more surgically. Not to demolish buildings. He can't do that. It's too horrible,» «it hurts Israel's image,» the Republican said. He added that he «likes» Lebanon and its leadership and believes the country can «give back.» «Iran destroyed Lebanon» through Hezbollah, he argued-but as «Iran is neutralized, Hezbollah is automatically neutralized.».
