To the sound of new explosions in Donbass in eastern Ukraine, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is currently making a televised address in which he will announce the recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk by the Russian Federation - a move that is probably a prelude to an invasion.
The Kremlin announced that the Russian president has already informed Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz by telephone that he is about to sign a decree recognising the independence of the two regions of eastern Ukraine.
At the same time, in the United States, the National Security Council is meeting under US President Joe Biden.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austen, Chief of Diplomacy Anthony Blinken, US Chief of Staff Mark Milley and CIA Director William Burns entered the West Wing of the White House shortly after Vladimir Putin announced that a decision on Donbass was imminent.
Biden is meeting with his national security team today, the White House confirms. Gen Milley, Sec Austin, and Sec Blinken all just spotted arriving at the West Wing.
- Mary Bruce (@marykbruce) February 21, 2022
Kiev is calling for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, while the National Security Council in Ukraine under Volodymyr Zelensky is already holding an emergency meeting.
The United Nations, through its spokesman Stefan Duzarich, appealed to «all concerned to refrain from any unilateral decision or action that could affect the territorial integrity of Ukraine».
An extraordinary National Security Council is also convened in France by decision of Emmanuel Macron, while the German side condemns Putin's moves, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz having conveyed in a telephone conversation with the Russian president that the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk is a violation of the Minsk agreements.
The «script» to the letter...
With the West discerning that Moscow is following to the letter the «scenario» leading to an invasion of Ukrainian territory, Vladimir Putin said at the extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council held earlier that he «will take a decision today» on the recognition or not of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine - following a similar request by the separatists and a resolution of the State Duma.
«The purpose of today's meeting is to listen to our colleagues [in the Security Council] and determine our further steps in this direction, including the appeal of the leaders of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic to Russia for recognition of their sovereignty, as well as the Duma resolution on the same issue,‘ Vladimir Putin said at the opening of the meeting.
Putin's statement, which was broadcast live on Russian television networks, followed a coordinated request by the separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk to the Kremlin for recognition of their independence and military support from Moscow.
It comes at a time when the Russian media are flooded with unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian aggression - exactly in the «model» that Western officials have predicted could be used as a pretext for invasion.
«Russia's recognition of Luhansk will prevent the loss of life of citizens of the ‘republic’, 300,000 of whom are Russian,» said Luhansk leader Leonid Pasechnik in a videotaped statement broadcast by Russian state television before the start of the Security Council.
Russia has issued passports to thousands of residents of the separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin may «press» for the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk in order for Moscow to openly send military forces to both regions, using the argument that it is intervening as an ally to protect them against Ukraine.
From the podium of the Security Council meeting, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was clear: «We have no choice but to go ahead with recognition,‘ he said.
All the other participants were also in favour of recognition, blaming the United States for the current tension. Nevertheless, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he intends to meet his US counterpart Anthony Blinken, as agreed in Geneva on Thursday.
The meeting ended with Vladimir Putin stating that the decision is to be taken today - and when in fact he had just declared the Minsk process for resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine «dead», according to the New York Times.
Recognition would clearly signal the «death knell» of the Minsk peace process, risking to lead to a generalised conflagration. Already the Duma resolution on the issue had been denounced by the international community, with the US and the EU calling on Putin not to proceed with an illegal recognition of Donbass independence.
«The ratification of this resolution would further undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and would constitute a serious violation of international law», the US diplomatic chief, Anthony Blinken, had pointed out.
Russia «ready» for invasion
At the moment Ukraine is surrounded by the 75% of Russian regular forces, according to the latest estimates of the US intelligence services, while the stay of Russian forces - over 30,000 troops on Belarusian territory seems to continue indefinitely.
Western officials believe that everything is operationally ready for an invasion of Russian territory if Putin gives the final «green light».
Biden administration officials quoted by CNNi say that on the ground Russia is moving towards preparing for an invasion, and «there has been no slowdown». Two-thirds of its combat battalions are reportedly within a 50-kilometer radius of the border, the British Guardian simultaneously reports.
The pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine claim, without facts and evidence, that the Ukrainian army is planning an operation to retake Donbass - a fact that the Ukrainian army denies and the West denies.
The situation in Donbass is like a ticking time bomb that could explode at any moment, with the warring sides accusing each other of mortar and artillery attacks. Civilians are being evacuated from the self-declared «people's republics» of Donetsk and Luhansk, where a general draft has been declared - moves that make the climate even more belligerent as Russia is accused by the West of seeking a pretext for invasion.
The border incident reported today by Russia, with reports of the death of Ukrainian saboteurs and firing on a Russian border post in the Rostov region - denied by Kiev - is perceived by several sides as a provocation that is part of Russia's general planning for an invasion.
Summing up the picture, the veteran French diplomat Gerard Araud says: «Unfortunately, it seems that Russia has put in place all the elements to launch a strike against Ukraine: The army is ready, the alleged provocations have been committed, the expected calls for help have come: All that is missing is the ‘green light’ from Putin.».
https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1495754967050764288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1495754967050764288%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.gr%2Fkosmos%2Fstory%2F302329%2Fkrisimes-ores-gia-tin-oykrania-anamenetai-diaggelma-poytin-yp-atmon-o-leykos-oikos
