Tourism: The four thorns that are hurting this season's revenues

The bar is being lowered dangerously for tourism revenues in 2021. While at the start of the period there were serious indications that these can move to 50% or even higher than those of 2019, everything now points to the fact that performance will ultimately be much lower.

The Bank of Greece notes that it is highly doubtful if total revenue can ultimately reach 40% in 2019. In order for everyone to understand where the bar is set, it suffices to note that that last year's revenues were approximately 25% of those in 2019, that is, before the outbreak of the pandemic.

The four wounds of Greek tourism

There were many things that This year has been challenging for Greek tourism:

1. Η stance of Great Britain, which from the outset sought to close its borders to its citizens and has largely succeeded in doing so.
2. Russia's reluctance allow travel
3. Η problematic image with tourists from Scandinavian countries
4. Η Indian Delta variant which appears to prevail in many countries

Everyone agrees that Delta mutation torpedoes any hopes, that this year may barely meet the expectations of the tourism industry.

According to data published by the Bank of Greece, the spread of the Delta variant in Europe is directly affecting our country. The Bank reports that it is It is highly doubtful that we will even reach the 40% revenue target for 2019.. It should be noted that before the season began, this scenario was the least favorable option on the table, and it now appears to be the most likely outcome.

Bank of Greece: Vaccination progress is key

As mentioned in the report, revenues from travel services are also directly affected by course of vaccination. More specifically, the governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, states in his report that «There is cautious optimism, as the recovery of tourism activities is closely linked to the successful response to the pandemic and, in particular, to the progress of vaccination.

Revenues from inbound tourism are expected to increase approximately 65% compared to 2020, but will still remain at a significantly lower level than in 2019. It is worth noting that Revenues in 2020 reached €4.319 billion.. In other words, they presented decrease by 76.2% compared to €18.17 billion in 2019. The Bank of Greece estimates that in 2021 revenues will reach 7.12 billion, approximately 39.21% of 2019.

The Delta variant will also dominate in Greece

Countries called upon to manage the rapid spread of Delta mutation, are Great Britain, Israel, and Russia., while Greek experts estimate that it will have spread throughout our country by August. The new cases of the mutation across Europe are a new source of concern for tourism.

The return to normality will be delayed

In his report, Yannis Stournaras states that «forecasts are subject to risks, which are related to the development of pandemic at national and global level. Despite the fact that the vaccination programme is progressing smoothly, the spread of coronavirus mutations is a source of uncertainty and any worsening of the pandemic could lead to a sluggish tourist season and delay the return to normality.

Elsewhere, he states that «the crisis caused by the pandemic in tourism does not allow for predictions about recovery of travel traffic and spending to 2019 levels, in less than two to three years. This is the time expected to be needed for leisure travel to return to increased levels of demand, both for Greece and internationally.

A UNWTO survey reports that 51% of respondents in Europe believes that international tourism will return to pre-Covid levels is expected in 2023, while 35% predicts that it will happen from 2024 onwards. Finally, in its report, the Bank of Greece states that arrivals and travel receipts for the first quarter of 2021 in our country did not exceed 13% and 10% corresponding to the figures for 2019.