With inflation galloping, citizens are finding it difficult to follow the price rally that is being recorded daily in the Turkish market, poverty hitting more and more households, and the coronavirus reaping the harvest of Turkish society, everyday life in the neighbouring country, being one side of the coin. On the other hand, since midnight last Saturday the Turkey and lives in the constellation of effort Erdogan to baptize as «political coup» the letter of the retired admirals, raising the tone and monopolizing the interest of the neighbouring media. They are the two sides of the daily life of the Turkey lately.
Two Greek professors of International Relations, who live in Istanbul and have been teaching for years at leading universities in the City, the Dimitris Triantafyllou and Byron Mataragkas believe that tensions may escalate in the coming period within the neighbouring country and agree that the Erdogan still remains strong, they do not see a «political coup» behind the letter from the retirees and disagree on whether the latter can proceed with a possible provocation in Aegean Sea, upsetting the political balance in Ankara.
Dimitris Triantafyllou: Erdogan «buys» political time
With the media playing up the government's narrative, the Dimitris Triantafyllou, Professor of International Relations and Director of the Centre for International and European Studies at Kadir Has University of Istanbul, estimates that the issue of retired admirals will remain high on the next 15-20 days on the news in the neighbouring country, unfurling a rhetoric about how once again the democrat president resists the pressures of various centres of power trying to control it.
Analysing the Turkish President's political moves, University Professor Kadir Has stresses that what the Turkish President is trying to do is Erdogan is to win political year until June 2023, in which case it must call constitutional elections. «Until then he has plenty of time ahead of him and he is trying to change the facts and win back public opinion. At the moment weighs and Sphygmomanometers people's reactions, trying to see if the latest moves will boost him in the polls.».
He found the opportunity to change the agenda inside Turkey
According to Mr. Triantafyllou the Erdogan government showed reflexes and took advantage of the situation after the protest statement of the Turkish officers. «It was a gift from God and butter for his bread.» In the harsh statement of 104 retired admirals the president's machinery moved directly to exploit it and say it was reminiscent of a coup. The aim, as he explains, is to be able to change the political scene and the agenda of everyday life, given that the pandemic and the economic crisis are currently on the rise in Turkey.
Possible escalation of tension - No question of a coup
In this context, he does not rule out an escalation of tension, sending a clear message to the interior that whoever raises his head should be careful. «And if he has achieved something over the years, the Erdogan is that he broke the army's grip. We cannot, however, speak of a possible provocation even though the action took place in the middle of the night since it was not on the agenda.».
The double pursuit of the retired Kemalists
For their part, the Retired Kemalists are trying, as Mr. Triantafyllou, on the one hand to send a message that there are limits to what the president can do, but it seems that they cannot achieve it. On the other hand, they are trying to split Erdogan's government partner, the Devlet Bahçeli, whose far-right party is recording a drop in latest polls with its percentages ranging from under the 10%. «They are trying to create friction within this party but I think it's a move that didn't work out for them».
Byron Mataragas: I fear provocation in the Aegean with the ultimate goal of overthrowing Erdogan
One possible provocation in Aegean or Eastern Mediterranean by forces of the Turkish army that Erdogan does not control with the ultimate goal of overthrowing him, fears in the coming period the Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Bahce Sehir University, Istanbul Byron Mataragas. So many warships in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean have not been deployed even during the First or Second World War, Mr.Mataragas observes, adding that miraculously, so far there has not been a warm incident.
«I see that Greece is dragged into a war with Turkey. There are some forces here in Turkey, a portion of the ousted generals, who are Kemalists, who do not have the best feelings for the ruler and are desperate for a shake-up. This armed conflict with Greece will be made by elements that are uncontrollable and that Erdogan does not control. They will seek a provocation that will resonate with the people to bring down the Turkish president. It is no coincidence that the Minister of National Defence Nikos Panagiotopoulos said that three times we came close to a hot incident and were actually avoided by the restraint shown by both sides.».
The landscape in the Turkish army is unclear
As explained by Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Bahce Sehir University the landscape in the Turkish army is foggy. «Nobody knows what is going on there and nobody can say that they control the situation in the army. What they are interested in is to make the strike as big as possible to weaken the Turkey. They are thinking of use Greece, because it is the only state that lends itself to striking Turkey. Regardless of the outcome, the more violent the incident, the more trouble it will create inside Turkey, leading to the fall of the government and the overthrow of Erdogan.».
Something similar, he recalls, has been documented before in diplomatic history such as 1974 with the Cyprus crisis which caused the fall of the dictatorship in Greece. But also later the ‘82 with the Falkland Islands crisis which were seized by the Argentine junta in a sign of national pride. The Thatcher then he sent the entire English fleet to the south pole to recapture all these islands. Their recapture resulted in the fall of the dictatorship in Argentina and the return of democracy.
Hard to remove Erdogan with elections - Tension will continue inside Turkey
Ο Roman professor believes that it is very difficult for Erdogan to removed by election. «It records a Popular base near 30% which is the his hard core». They are in the Anatolian hinterland and they are mostly conservative and religious. He is still strong and can only lose power because of natural death or a coup-scenarios that everyone is averse to.» According to him, the tension inside Turkey will continue in the coming period as Erdogan is not over the case of the demobilized.
