A senior member of a Paris-based Iranian dissident organisation said today that the US-Israeli war in Iran would not overthrow the clerical leadership, arguing that only a popular uprising backed by internal resistance could achieve this.
Almost two weeks of bombing have claimed the lives of some 2,000 people in Iran, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and have damaged much of the military and security apparatus.
Iran has responded in the same way, driving global energy markets and transport into chaos and spreading the conflict across the Middle East, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has intensified its grip on power and threatens to crush any uprising.
«The 12-day war in June, and today's war, now in its 12th day, proved that bombing cannot topple the regime,» Mohammad Mohadsein, head of foreign policy at the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said in a press conference.
«Even if you have 50,000 armed soldiers in the field, you need the support of the Iranian people. You need a popular uprising. The combination of those 50,000 or 20,000 or any other number with a popular uprising, then you have the power to overthrow the regime.».
Mohadesin said he did not consider the deployment of US ground troops to be realistic.
The NCRI, also known by its Farsi name of Mujahideen-e-Khalq, was listed as a terrorist organisation by the US until 2012. It is outlawed in Iran and it is unclear how much support it has in the country.
Mohadesin recognised that his organisation alone could not overthrow the system. However, he said mass protests, such as those that occurred in January until their bloody suppression, would resume once the bombing stopped and could ultimately change the balance.
«I can't say how many months or a year but...this is the path to overthrowing the regime,» he said.
