Sunday's elections gave expected results in terms of the ranking of the parties. However, the results were not at all predictable in terms of the difference between ND and SYRIZA, which collapsed electorally.
Let's take things backwards.
- In January 2015 the SYRIZAachieved his biggest victory and was voted for by 2,245,978 people. In September 2015 he got 1,926,526 votes. In 2019 he got 1,781,057 votes. And in 2023 he got 1,182,408 votes. This means that in 8 years it has lost half its strength.
- THE SOUTHWESTin January 2015 got 1,718,694 votes. In September 2015 he got 1,526,400 votes. In 2019 he got 2,251,618 votes. And in 2023 he got 2,403. 718. This means that it has been on an upward trend, especially since 2016 that Kyriakos Mitsotakis took over the leadership of the party.
- The PASOKin January 2015 got 289,469 votes. In September 2015 he got 341,732 votes. In 2019 he got 457,623 votes. And in 2023 he got 675,278 votes. This means that it is on a continuous upward trend first under the leadership of Fofi Gennimata and then Nikos Androulakis.
The present Parliament will be a five-party Parliament. Of the five parties, four have increased their percentages and votes.
THE SOUTHWEST from 39,85% in 2019 to 40,79% in 2023, getting 152,129 more votes.
THE SYRIZA from 31.53% in 2019 fell to 20.07%, losing 598,618 votes.
The PASOK from 8.10% to 11.46%, getting 217,661 more votes.
The JKE from 5,30% to 7,23%, getting 126,140 more votes.
The Greek Solution from 3,70% went to 4,45% getting 53,020 more votes.
The numbers show that the fall of SYRIZA helped the other four parties, which had a total increase of 548,950 votes, but also some of the parties that were out of parliament.
The simple proportional representation-although it is the only fair and democratic electoral system- was in practice cancelled by the electoral performance of the Southwest and the inability of Syriza to handle it.
On the parties' strategies
- The Southwest had the clearest strategy of the contenders for power.Aimed at «burning» the simple proportional representation, with the aim of winning and achieving self-reliance in the second elections. This would ensure its political dominance until 2027.
Its political strategy was built around the person of its leader, whom the polls showed to be more competent than his political opponents in almost all areas. Maximou had correctly diagnosed that the elections would not compare parties in power, but candidates for prime minister. And on this level, Kyriakos Mitsotakis had greater managerial competence, compared to Alexis Tsipras and Nikos Androulakis.
- SYRIZA has shown a strategic inadequacy.It started with progressive government, then to the no/yes/maybe of a government of losers, then to tolerance government, then to special purpose government. And all this, when in the previous four years it failed to break the «anti-Syriza» front that had emerged in 2019. The SYRIZA party had failed to acquire a satisfactory social grounding, since its performance in local government, in trade unions, in student life, etc., is extremely limited.
At the same time, SYRIZA failed to reach the political and social centre adequately, while the results (including the student elections) showed that was deluded about his influence on the youth.
- PASOK found itself in the middle of the infill and tried to avoid the role of an annex of the major parties.His strategy of «neither Mitsotakis nor Tsipras» has narrowed his field, but it had limits. Ultimately, his stance, combined with the collapse of SYRIZA, gave him momentum for the second election as a potential challenger to the opposition leadership.
- The KKE had a different strategy this time.Instead of the well-known strategy of «5/6 parties, two strategies» which could be translated into «alone and all of them», made a U-turn. The strategy expressed by the slogan «alone and all of us» aims at a broader popular alliance against the ruling class and its power. The results have been positive.
The second round of elections
With these results, the exploratory mandates that will be given to the first three parties are of little importance, nothing will come of them. The country is heading for a second election with enhanced proportional representation.
The Parliament that will emerge from the 25 June elections may not be a five-party Parliament, but six-party or even seven-party. This development may redistribute the seats of the parties, but what matters is the overall dynamics of the elections.
The winner of the 25 June elections will be the South-West, based on current data, which is extremely difficult to overturn. What will be important for Piraeus will be the increase in its percentages and votes, in order to reach 180 seats and proceed with constitutional changes. This does not mean that the difference from the second party cannot be reduced, but it does not negate the fact that the South-West has imposed its dominance on the political system.
From there, the battle will be fought in the opposition, between SYRIZA and PASOK. In the January 2015 elections SYRIZA had received 36.43% and PASOK 4.68%, the difference between them was 31.66%. Today, this difference has been reduced to 8.61% with SYRIZA at 20.07% and PASOK at 11.46%. Where this difference will end up will be one of the serious issues of the next elections, as it will determine in the future which party will be in the opposition.
SYRIZA is in a process of continuous slide, having 4 electoral defeats in 2019 (European, parliamentary, municipal and regional elections) and one in 2023. All indications are that it will enter into a confrontation with PASOK, not only in the June elections, but also in the October municipal and regional elections. And then there are the 2024 European elections..
Unlike PASOK, which has forces in the municipalities and regions, SYRIZA, as the 2019 results had shown, seems to be slipping there as well. In political terms, SYRIZA risks accumulating multiple defeats over a 4-5 year period, with unknown consequences.
On the other hand, the KKE emerges as the main antisystemic force. He got 425,768 votes and wants to approach the 536,105 votes he got in May 2012, or the 583,750 he got in September 2007. Its strength will be shown mainly in the June elections, since at the local government level it does not have the strength to hope for spectacular results in the October elections.
As for the polls, did not fall outside the ranking order of the parties. But they were way off in percentages and differences, mainly between South-West and Syriza. A worrying phenomenon.
What matters at the moment are numbers and performance, which also influence political developments. Assessments of the parties' strategies, the abilities of their political leaderships and their potential to move forward can be discussed after the completion of the exploratory mandates and after the parties themselves have assessed - beyond the formal announcements - the election results.
Vangelis Chorafas
