After the “black” record of 8.613 cases, all official government lips are declaring that there will not be a new universal lockdown. The situation will be tackled through a three-pronged approach: sweeping market controls, strengthening the NHS and improving the flow of vaccinations.
Despite the heightened concern across society, there is a logic to this decision of the Government. In other words, since the vaccine can provide a solution and offer respite from the nightmarish hospital on-call times, our unvaccinated citizens have no choice but to make an appointment for a vaccination, in order to protect themselves and those around them. The country cannot be closed again to those who “obeyed” and went ahead with the vaccination option in order to return to their normal lives.
However, since it is not possible to force someone to be vaccinated (if only compulsory vaccination were on the table), the wall of immunity will hardly be reached, so that the current situation is not heading towards a normalization.
On the contrary, in my personal assessment, we are heading towards a “natural” lockdown in the economy. A “shutdown” that will not happen by government mandate, but because circumstances will dictate it. More specifically, among the thousands sick people, it is employees and professionals. The shops will therefore have to close for a period of time once the owner falls ill. While in businesses, workers will be absent from their jobs until they have fully recovered from the coronavirus.
There is, however, a more important reason that leads us to the “natural” lockdown. It is the new market restriction measures that cause discomfort to consumers, creating shopping difficulties for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Furthermore, the wave of price inflation that started with the rise in energy prices is expected to peak in the next two months and remain at least until Easter. We must not forget that the economy is first and foremost a psychology. And under these circumstances it is really difficult for any consumer to go out and spend.
Therefore, uncertainty is back in the frame of the economy and citizens are “packing up” again until the situation improves.
The big winner again? The bank deposits which in the midst of a pandemic increased in Greece by 30 billion euros. This will be the “fuel” for the restart of the economy, which, however, does not seem to be on fire in the coming months. This time we will experience an atypical “natural” lockdown but, unfortunately, without any real support for those in need.
Dr. Nikos Kanellos, Doctor of NTUA in the field of Economic and Strategic Analysis of Innovation and Modern Technologies.
