Turkey poses a double danger in the Aegean Sea and Crete, as fears of an accident are compounded by provocation scenarios by the Turkish secret services.
In particular, according to a report by the non-profit organization Nordic Monitor, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his close aides are planning to sending a specially trained MIT unit to provoke a “warm incident” like the one in Imia in 1996.
And as the Imia scene had resulted in US intervention and the “grey zones” in the Aegean, it is not excluded that Ankara is seeking today to force Greece, with US intervention, to a compromise.
Note that in the event of a hot incident with Greece, the Turkish Constitution provides for the postponement of elections, which in this case are scheduled for June 2023 and which Erdogan simply cannot afford to miss, as he and his family would even risk imprisonment.
But the constant tension in the Aegean increases the chances of an accident, which is why the Greek government through its spokesman, Yannis Economou, warned Ankara that it is “playing with fire” and said that: «Greece will respond to any challenge, rhetorically or on the ground.».
Turkey's “target” is especially the sovereignty of Crete, which it disputes in the latest, illegal, memorandum of cooperation with Libya. The pro-government Turkish newspaper Sabah warned that a possible extension of Crete's territorial waters to 12 nautical miles is a “red line” and a cause for war for Turkey.
However, government officials in Athens denied any such scenarios, while the Foreign Ministry said that the completion of the technical preparation announced by Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias in Parliament in February 2021 is expected soon. But beyond that, it is a political decision at the top level, i.e. at the level of the Prime Minister, whether to proceed. But an extension of the territorial waters only to Crete is not a simple matter and because it would be interpreted as a retreat by Greece to its own right in the Aegean, if our country did not also move eastwards at the same time.
In Athens, however, they consider that Turkey cannot dare to carry out research in the maritime sovereignty zone of Crete on the occasion of the Memorandum of Understanding with Libya, which has been condemned by the US, the EU, France, Germany and Egypt. Besides, large multinationals are also active in Libya, and they would not look kindly on Turkish interference.
Already the State Department and the Commission have sent messages to the Libyan government that it has no authority to enter into such agreements. But in Turkey, the opposition is also criticising the government over the Turkish-Turkish memorandum, pointing out that despite Erdogan's claims that the 2019 agreement has been ratified by the UN, the reality is different.
