The return to high surpluses from 2023, which will reach 3.71% of GDP in 2025 incorporates the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Program for the period 2022–2025, submitted in Brussels.
The... unveiling of the basic assumptions of the Plan was made by Hellenic Fiscal Council, which issued an opinion on these forecasts, noting that the targets are achievable, provided that the pandemic has indeed come to an end and no additional measures are required.
From 2023, fiscal rules will be reinstated, in line with expectations for their revision within a more flexible framework. Regardless of the apparent revision of European fiscal rules, in 2023 fiscal policy will be adjusted with the aim of primary surplus of 2% of GDP. The primary surplus is expected to rise to 2.81% of GDP in 2024 and 3.71% of GDP in 2025.
On this basis, fiscal management is in line with the rules set out in the enhanced surveillance framework for primary fiscal surpluses averaging 2.21% of GDP from 2023 onwards.
As noted in its announcement, the Fiscal Council's macroeconomic forecasts on which the 2022-2025 MDP is based have not changed from those in the Stability Program (SP) submitted to the European Commission at the end of April, so the comments included in the relevant assessment by the EFC of the SP's macroeconomic forecasts remain valid. It should be noted, however, that the relatively limited decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2021, announced in early June, improves expectations for recovery in 2021.
Furthermore, both the European Commission and the OECD in their recent estimates (May 2021) forecast growth rates for 2021 of 4.11% and 3.81% respectively, compared to 3.61% forecast by the Ministry of Finance.
