Opinion poll: New Democracy with a big lead, five-party parliament

A significant lead of 7.9% in favour of ND is recorded in an Opinion survey, despite the problems of accuracy, the energy crisis and while the issue of wiretapping is at the centre of the public debate.

The survey was carried out amidst the reactions to the Draft Law on the N.S.Y. More specifically, the New Democracy Party has 32.1% in the voting intention against 24.2% of SYRIZA , 11.2% of PASOK-KINAL, 4.5% of KKE, 3.9% of HELLENIC SOLUTION, 2.3% of MERA 25, 2.4% of HELLENIC NATIONAL PARTY and 1% of NATIONAL CREATION. The percentages in the intention to vote on the valid votes are 33.8%, 25.5%, 11.8%, 4.7%, 4.1%, 2.4%, 2.5% and 1% respectively. Note that the Undecideds amount to 10.8% ( 11.4% out of the valid ones).

Accuracy, energy prices, Greek-Turkish relations, unemployment and then... interceptions

As the most serious problems for the country, problems that most concern citizens are listed: Accuracy with 68.7%, the energy crisis/ energy tariffs with 22.4%, national issues /Greek-Turkish relations with 20.2%, followed by unemployment with 8.5%, interceptions with 5.8%, the situation in the NSS with 5.2%, discrepancy and crime/ delinquency with 4.2% etc.

There is a positive assessment of the household basket by 38%, while 58% has an opposite view. The highest satisfaction rates for the measure are recorded among the voters of the New Dems with a positive evaluation of the measure by 62.8% and PASOK-KINAL by 53%. Among the other parties, the positive evaluation is 19.4% among the voters of SYRIZA, 22.3% of KKE , 21% of ELLINIKI LYSIS and 20.6% of MERA 25. We are always talking about voters in the 2019 national elections. Satisfaction with the overall measures taken by the Government to address the issue of poverty amounts to 47%, while 52% has a rather or purely negative rating. The highest rates of positive and rather positive evaluation appear among voters of the New Democracy Party with 69.2% and PASOK-KINAL with 61.4%. Among the voters of SYRIZA this percentage is 25.9%, of KKE 29.6%, of ELLINIKI LYSIS 37.8% and of MERA 25 31.4%.

Serious but not «top» issue of surveillance

The issue of eavesdropping, although it appears relatively low in the benchmarking where each respondent was allowed up to two responses when evaluated independently, is seen as a serious issue by 61%, while 35% has little to no response. The percentages of SYRIZA with 83.2%, KKE with 79.6% and MERA 25 with 90.2% are up compared to the main result. The percentages of those who declare that the Prime Minister, the Opposition and the Judiciary have handled the issue of wiretapping correctly are low. The satisfaction rates are 29%, 25.8% and 24%. That is, we find the lowest satisfaction rate in the handling of the Justice Department. 38% believe that the surveillance of politicians and others reported in recent weeks by the media and political parties are largely valid and that the Prime Minister is responsible, 17% believe that they are not valid but are part of a war of economic centres against the Prime Minister and the highest percentage of 40% say that they cannot take a position unless evidence is provided. The highest percentages of adopting the allegations and blaming the Prime Minister are found in SYRIZA with 58.1%, KKE with 46.3%, ELLINIKI LYSI with 47.4% and MERA 25 with 45.7%.

Interestingly, 27% states that the wiretapping case may very well influence the final choice of which party to vote for. 16% respond a little and 54% not at all. The highest percentages of those stating that it is very and quite likely to be influenced appear among SYRIZA voters with 50.3% and MERA 25 with 48.6%. In the other parties this percentage appears. In the Centre, this percentage is 25.4%.

Approval rates of the leaders: Mitsotakis ahead

39% say they are very and fairly satisfied with the overall work of the Government, with 25% saying a little and 35% saying not at all. The highest satisfaction rates appear among voters of the New Democracy Party with 66.5% and PASOK-KINAL with 53%. In terms of ideological self-definition, the highest percentages appear in the centre-right with 74.5%, in the right with 64.1% and in the centre with 48.1%. At the same time, however, 25% think that things would be better for the country and society if we had a Syriza government, with 15% answering probably not and 54% answering no ( a sum of 69%). Note that among Syriza voters the percentage answering that things would be better is 59.5%. The same opinion is held by 8.9% of the New Democracy, 9.8% of PASOK-KINAL, 24.1% of the Communist Party of Greece and 30.6% of MERA 25. In the Centre, 15.6% has the same opinion.

41% are very and fairly satisfied with the overall presence and work of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, with 23% stating a little and 36% not at all. The highest rates of approval of the Prime Minister's work appear in ND with 69.4% and in PASOK - KINAL with 54.9%. Also in terms of ideological self-definition, the highest rates of satisfaction appear in the Centre-Right with 74.9%, in the Right with 67.2% and in the Centre with 52%. At the same time, 20% are very and fairly satisfied with the overall presence and opposition tactics of Alexis Tsipras, 28% a little and 51% not at all. The highest satisfaction rate appears in SYRIZA with 44.4%. In the Centre this percentage is 13.7%.

Prime Minister Mitsotakis is the most popular political leader with 46.8% positive opinions compared to 52.3% negative opinions. N. Androulakis is second with 38.5% against 50.9%. He is followed by A. Tsipras with 32.6% against 65.1%. D. Koutsoumpas follows with 26.3% against 64.6%, G. Varoufakis with 21.3% against 72.9% and K. Velopoulos with 17.1% against 76.2%.

The Prime Minister has a significant lead over the Leader of the Official Opposition in six out of the seven critical areas regarding who can manage him better. For Foreign Policy and Security of the country with 54.5% against 20.3%, for Migration/Refugee issues with 48.2% against 21.3%, for Economy and Development issues with 47.1% against 25.5%, for the problems of crime with 46.4% against 20.2%, for the issues of Economy and Transparency, Protection of Democracy with 40.5% against 30.1% and for the issues of Institutions and Transparency, Protection of Democracy with 37.1% against 30.1%. Mr. Tsipras leads Mr. Mitsotakis with 37.5% against 35.8% on the issues of social policy and support for the weakest. And overall, who they consider suitable for Prime Minister is 45.3% against 27.6% for A. Tsipras, with No one scoring 24.2%. Mitsotakis scores the highest percentages in ND with 76% and in PASOK-KINAL with 62.7%, while A. Tsipras in SYRIZA with 65.6% , in KKE with 35.2% and in MERA 25 with 33.4%.

Codified conclusions of the Opinion

64.6% believe that New Democracy will win in the next elections compared to 19.2% who believe that SYRIZA will win. At the same time, in relation to what kind of government they would prefer to emerge from the next elections, 29.1% say that the government will be a self-ruling New Democracy, 10.5% say that it will be a coalition government of SYRIZA - PASOK, 10.6% self-reliant SYRIZA government, 8.3% a coalition government of ND - PASOK, 6.4% a government of all three, 4.9% a government of technocrats, 2.7% a government of ND - HELLENIC SOLUTION, etc.

From the quantitative and qualitative data of the survey as a whole, the explanation of voting intention as recorded is also evident. The better performance of the Government in relation to what could be expected from a Syriza Government, the great superiority of K. Mitsotakis compared to A. Tsipras in the ability to manage critical issues and in his suitability for Prime Minister, the dominance in the Centre despite any minor damage, but not choosing another party and the inability of the Opposition to create a current in its favour, are the main reasons for this poll picture.