In the last 24 hours, olive oil prices have fallen dramatically in all Mediterranean trading centres, albeit to varying degrees. A common feature and the most obvious cause is the lack of (almost) any market interest. Thus, not only are last year's stocks, even if minimal, still unsold, putting pressure on the market and creating undesirable distortions, but even this year's fresh stocks are not in demand, reinforcing the downward trends.
These are developments that those who, at least for months, have been seeing the real facts and not «caressing ears» had courageously and honestly described and warned about. The new element is that this price decline is very sharp and comes earlier than expected as we were expecting it from the beginning of 2025 when this year's fresh olive oils would fill the tanks.
Consumption decides everything
Perhaps we have become tiresome but we will come back to insist that at this juncture everything will be judged by consumption. In the two previous years of the crisis (low supply, excess demand, price surges) consumption lost a significant share. Only if there is mass consumer interest will there also be mass buying interest on the part of the industry. Otherwise, chuku chuku, tank by tank, with prices surging.
«The State and the various bodies should make every effort to increase consumption by repatriating those who have migrated to the much cheaper seed oils, in order to reduce the oversupply and keep prices down.».
The numbers
Skydiving without a parachute is so rapid that any numbers you hear are more of a theoretical value as they are overturned in a matter of hours. So with all due caution, 6/11/2024 afternoon for this year's first extras:
- Spain: €5.80 to €6.0/kg with a drop of around 13% in 2 weeks.
- Italy: around €8.50/kg, the good of the Poulia having broken downwards the 9.0-9.20 barrier, which had been held for a long time.
- Portugal: It was at 6.00 and now at €5.80/kg looking for buyers.
- Tunisia: A range from 4.80 to 5.20€/kg and almost organic.
- We wrote yesterday about Turkey Turkey in the news: why, though; that they fell from €5.40 to €4.25/kg in 2 weeks.
- Greece: From the 7.20 of Agioi Apostoloi, we descend to 6.0 - 6.20 Messinia and Crete, with isolated trades in a climate of uncertainty, not to say «anarchy», which, if the markets do not calm down quickly, portends explosive situations.
A few remarks:
# The biggest problems are accumulating in regions which in the previous months did not sell expecting prices above 10 €, with «uncut» oil, with unfulfilled promises («let it in and we'll see»).
# The messages come describing fresh oils that are not particularly organoleptic, fruity, bitter and spicy, but of impeccable quality with NOAH and residue free.
# The irrigated ones have very satisfactory oil content, while the dry ones are in tragic condition.
# If it doesn't rain in the next 1-2 weeks we might drop below 200,000 tonnes.
Vassilis Zambounis/olivenews.gr*
