Europe woke up one morning and said, «No way, we're going to save Ukraine.» Not with peace, that's for the naive, but with a loan. With conditions. With footnotes. With an invoice and a receipt. Because modern European humanitarianism doesn't work without Excel, and war, as we all know, is too serious a matter to be left to chance or diplomacy.
Because until yesterday, Ukraine was fighting with American money. A lot of money. So much that if you spread it out on the table, you would have to push democracy aside to make room for it. And suddenly, it's over. Trump decided that peace is more profitable when accompanied by financial control, cut off the generous aid, and presented his own peace plan, a plan that, coincidentally, Putin also finds perfectly reasonable.
The new US budget allocates $800 million to Ukraine over the next two years. That's roughly what Greece pays in two fines for plastic coffee cups. With less fuss and without geopolitical analysis.
Europe jumped to its feet. Not out of indignation. Out of fear. Because if the war ends, what will happen to the weapons? To the factories? To the contracts? What about the 800 billion they have already decided to invest over the next ten years to «defend» themselves against an enemy who, the more he fights, the more he justifies the budget?.
The European Union has a GDP nine times greater than Russia's. It could undertake a serious peace initiative. But when you've already ordered missiles, you don't cancel the event. We're not amateurs, after all.
After all, this is not the first time that Europe has persuaded Ukraine to continue the war. It did so once with Boris Johnson, who went to Istanbul and returned with canceled talks. It is doing so again now, with Trump's peace plan being seen as a threat to the European war economy. The line is clear: war until the very end.
Somewhere along the way, the Great Idea was born: to give Ukraine €215 billion from frozen Russian assets held in Belgium. We'll take it now, we'll give it away, and when Russia pays war reparations, everything will be fine.
One small detail: for Russia to pay reparations, it must first lose the war. But these are just fine print. When you say it with a serious tone and the European flag behind you, it sounds perfectly realistic.
For two months, the plan was cloaked in propaganda: the Russian bear sabotages GPS, blocks flights, derails trains, hacks computers, and worst of all, persuades people to vote wrongly. These things are unacceptable. Anti-European.
Except that the money was in Belgium. And Belgium read the fine print. Because if Russia takes legal action for embezzlement of 215 billion, we're not talking about political costs. We're talking about economic ruin. International law may have been torn to shreds in many areas, but when it comes to money, it doesn't mess around. That's where it gets strict again.
So Belgium stated the obvious. «OK, but if I get involved, I want full coverage. And if we lose, you pay.» And then Europe hesitated. Because it's one thing to talk tough to the bear and quite another to sign on the dotted line.
Plan B: joint European loan of 90 billion. Interest-free, generous, supportive. Ukraine will take it now and pay it back... when the Russian reparations come. That is, sometime. Maybe. If.
It's not a bad idea. Ukraine is on the brink of bankruptcy, and the money will allow it to continue buying weapons with dignity. Because, as the Politico, The terms of the loan explicitly stipulate how much of the money will be returned to European military industries. Circular economy. Green transition, but with rockets.
Joint borrowing helps elsewhere too, sharing the burden. Until now, it was mainly Germany, France, and Britain that paid for countries transforming their economies into war economies. Now we will all pay. As European solidarity dictates, we will all pay together, so that no one is seriously disadvantaged.
Of course, they tell us that «the cost will not be borne by national budgets.» It will simply be borne by the EU budget. In other words, there will be a shortfall in funds for cohesion, farmers, regions, and small countries. Greece, for example, what is it supposed to do with these? It has sunshine.
And from 2028, the EU will also pay 3 billion a year in interest for seven years. Plus equipment. The German arms industry saw a mere 36% increase in profits in 2024; we cannot leave them exposed.
And so Europe continues, talking about values, counting interest, selling peace in installments and war in packages. It fears the Russian bear, but loves the cash register. It doesn't play by international law, unless there's a lot of money at stake. And in the end, when the bill comes to the usual suspects, they will tell us that «there was no alternative.» There never is, when bombs fall with European approval and receipts are written in the name of solidarity.
