People can probably live to the age of 130 years old, and probably even more, although the chances of reaching such advanced ages remain very slim, according to new research.
The upper limit of human lifespan has long been the subject of intense scientific debate, with recent studies suggesting that we could reach up to 150, or even that there is no maximum theoretical age for humans. New research, published Wednesday in Royal Society Open Science, joins the conversation, breaking down new info on supercentenarians—people who are 110 years old and older—and those who are a bit younger (105 and older).
With the risk of death increasing as the years go by, scientific analysis shows that the risk eventually «flattens out» and remains stable., around 50-50.
«After 110, one might think that living another year is almost like flipping a coin,» said Anthony Davison, professor of statistics at EPFL, (Lausanne), who led the research. «If you get heads, you'll live until your next birthday; if not, you'll die sometime in the next year,» he said in an interview with the BBC. AFP.
Based on the data available so far, it seems likely that humans can live to at least 130, but the conclusions from the findings «suggest that there is no limit to human lifespan,» the study concludes.
These conclusions correspond to similar statistical analyses carried out in datasets with data on the elderly. «However, this study reinforces these conclusions and makes them more accurate, as more data is now available,» Davison said.
The first dataset studied by the team included material from the International Database on Longevity, covering over 1,100 centenarians from 13 countries. The second is from Italy, and includes every person who was at least 105 years old between January 2009 and December 2015.
This research involves drawing conclusions from existing data, but Davison said it was a logical approach. «Any study of extreme longevity, statistical or biological, will involve drawing conclusions/calculations,» he said. «We were able to show that if there is a limit below 130, we should be able to find it using the data that is available now,» he added.
In any case, however, just because people can reach 130 or exceed it, that doesn't mean that... it will happen to all of us (or even to most of us).
For starters, the analysis is based on people who have already managed to reach and exceed 100, which is not exactly a common occurrence. And even at 110, the chances of reaching 130 are about «one in a million... not impossible, but very unlikely,» said Davison, adding that, in the absence of major medical and social advances, such ages are extremely unlikely to ever be observed.
The oldest person on record is Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 at the age of 122.
