Ο Chinese General Sun Tzu He reported: «If you know your enemy and you know yourself, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not your enemy, for every victory you win you will suffer a defeat. If you know neither your enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in all battles.»

In this context, this article will seek to analyse Turkish foreign policy in relation to current geopolitical developments in order to draw useful conclusions about Turkey's moves and whether the so-called (by many inside Greece) geopolitical upgrade of Turkey is real or is another propaganda myth of Turkey due to coincidences.

For the credibility and validity of this research and analytical process, data and information from a protagonist of Turkish foreign policy, Hakan Fidan, will be used.

In particular, Hakan Fidan, upon taking over the reins of Turkish foreign policy in 2023, wrote an article entitled: «Turkish Foreign Policy at the Turn of the “Century of Türkiye”: Challenges, Vision, Objectives, and Transformation» to describe the objectives of Turkish foreign policy at the beginning of the «Century of Turkey» [see: Insight Türkiye, Vol. 25, No. 3 (2023)].

In this article, in relation to the vision for Turkey as a Regional, Creative and Transformative Agent, Mr. Fidan states: «Turkey is once again emerging as a force for good, assuming an enhanced role of responsibility on the international stage. It stands out as a problem solver, a system improver and a transformative factor in the region and in international affairs, on the cusp of the “Century of Turkey”.

The international system, as envisioned by Turkey, is evolving beyond the traditional concept of an international order determined by poles of power - either unipolarity, bipolarity or multipolarity. Turkey seeks to contribute to the creation of a more inclusive, effective, equitable and secure international system capable of addressing contemporary global and regional challenges - a resilient system based on solidarity rather than rivalry.

This is a difficult task, requiring strategic patience and unwavering determination. Turkey, with its firm political will and growing capabilities, is in a strong position to become one of the architects of such a new international system. Turkey's quest for a more just, inclusive and secure world order stems from the principles of justice and conscience, which are deeply rooted in the eternal culture and identity of the Turkish people and are reflected accordingly in the national foreign policy.

Turkey is ready to cooperate with other states in defending common values and fulfilling shared responsibilities in building an international system that emphasizes human well-being, addresses economic inequalities and promotes global peace, security, stability and prosperity.».

Also, with regard to the main objectives of Turkish Foreign Policy, the Turkish Foreign Minister in the same article, pointed out the necessity of a holistic and integrated strategy, where the fundamental points of the strategy are the consolidation of peace and security in our region, the further institutionalization of Turkey's external relations on a structural basis, the development of a prosperous environment and the promotion of Turkey's global objectives. In particular, he said that the main objectives of Turkish Foreign Policy are:

Turkey's Contribution to Peace and Security in the Region and the Creation of New Models of Cooperation to (a) eliminate threats and address challenges and (b) seize opportunities to develop regional economic and political models of cooperation.
Η further Institutional Armouring of External Relations on a structural basis through the strengthening of existing strategic relationships and the creation of new ones [e.g. Organization of Turkish States (OTS), where it seeks to promote the cultural heritage of Turkish culture and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), where it seeks cooperation with Muslim countries to promote regional development].
The Development of a Prosperous Environment (the goal of making Turkey one of the 10 largest economies in the world will broaden and deepen its trade and economic relations worldwide and, moreover, will enhance not only the prosperity of the Turkish people, but also of its neighbours, friends and partners worldwide).
Η Promoting Global Goals by strengthening Turkey's policies in many regions of the world and contributing to the solution of global problems.

Evaluating the above and focusing on Turkey's continuous effort to increase its influence in the international system, exploiting its geostrategic position, its economic and military capabilities, but also through the manifestation of a more active and aggressive foreign policy, it is concluded that the objective of Turkey's High Strategy is the emergence and consolidation of Turkey as a middle power in the regional system of our wider region (Balkans, Caucasus, Eastern Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa).

The concept of «middle power» in international relations relates to states that are not superpowers (USA, China, Russia), but have significant economic, military or political power to play a major role in international developments and influence regional and global issues.

In particular, the middle powers seek to promote multilateral cooperation through international organisations (e.g. UN, WTO, OSCE, etc.), to exert diplomatic influence through alliances, economic assistance and mediation in inter-state conflicts and, finally, to promote regional stability by taking a leading role in regional crises.

In the light of the above, the fact that Turkey has taken significant steps in recent years to increase its geopolitical value and emerge as an important middle power in international politics.

In particular, it makes effective use of its tangible and intangible national resources in order to secure room for manoeuvre in the international community, it has the capacity to negotiate and to some extent to resist the policies of the major powers and also, given that it lacks the capacity to act autonomously, it seeks to exert influence within regional collective bodies and international organisations.

Finally, Turkey, adopting the view of the liberal theorists of international relations Cooper, Higgott and Nossal (See: Relocating Middle Powers), which state that the middle powers seek to play three roles in the international community: (a) catalyst, (b) facilitator and (c) manager. pursued:

Take action on international issues (catalyst),
Facilitate the creation of partnerships and coalitions (facilitator) and
To contribute to institution building and the development of international standards (administrator).

Despite its best efforts so far, however, Turkey is far from becoming a credible middle power and playing the geopolitical role it wishes to play..

This is due both to endogenous factors related to Turkey's characteristics and modus operandi, and to exogenous factors in the international system.

In particular, a country that seeks to contribute to the creation of a more inclusive, effective, equitable and secure international system as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan points out, it must be a democratic country and respect international law, which is not the case with Turkey.

Also, Turkey has no right to talk about its contribution to Peace and Security when it has invaded Cyprus and illegally occupies 36.2% of its territory, flagrantly ignoring all the UN resolutions condemning its action.

Furthermore, Turkey is not allowed to talk about its mediating role in the resolution of international conflicts when it is the catalyst for regional conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and Libya. In this context, Turkey cannot facilitate the resolution of regional conflicts since, apart from being a catalyst for them, it is also part of them. Its involvement in many open regional fronts makes it vulnerable and acts as an obstacle to its plans to become a middle power with increased geopolitical value. In fact, if the situation in Syria escalates and causes a standoff between Israel and Turkey, all its plans will be thwarted.

In addition, Turkey has power factors, but they are not inexperienced. In particular, it has powerful armed forces, but it does not have the capacity for a global military intervention. Turkey's military industry has also had significant successes, but is vulnerable and depends on the political will of major powers (USA, Germany, etc.) as to whether or not to supply it with important components and materials needed for the production of its weapons.

Furthermore, Turkey's economy is not strong enough to support Mr Erdogan's grand plans and combined with the economic and social inequalities and internal challenges Turkey faces, make it vulnerable in the international system.

Finally, Turkey is not a credible middle power, because it is under constant pressure from superpowers such as the US, Russia, Iran, China and is trying to balance its power. (often unsuccessfully), among their pursuits. He may be well acquainted with the Eastern bargain, but when the superpowers claim satisfaction of their interests they do not tolerate such behaviour.

In the light of the above, it should also be noted that some Turkey's diplomatic failures, which further prove that it is not a credible middle power and that it does not play the geopolitical role it claims. Specifically:

Turkey's diplomatic initiative to hold a meeting of the leaders of Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, in order to achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war is not a success, because it ended in a fiasco. It would be a success if the talks were attended by the Mr Putin and Mr Trump and decided to end the war.
As she declares, she will not allow her isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean. So considers that it is isolated due to its poor relations with many of its neighbours (Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel), it does not participate in the EastMed Gas Forum, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), and in general, it is outside European energy plans. Her reaction in these developments is convulsive (contesting the Cypriot and Greek EEZ and the sovereign rights of its neighbours in general, etc.) and it manifests itself in an aggressive policy (e.g. surveys with Oruc Reis in the Aegean Sea), which is not consistent with the role of a middle power.
The European Parliament's continuous condemnatory reports on Turkey, combined with the suspension of Turkey's accession path to the EU, are further proof of Turkey's isolation. from European diplomatic processes and confirms the view that it is not a credible middle power with a strong geopolitical role in the region.
Despite its invitation to participate (after 13 years of exclusion) in the Arab League Summit to examine the situation in Gaza, Turkey is struggling to restore its relations with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but has failed to fully bridge its conflicting geopolitical interests with these countries.
The refusal of the BRICS countries also to accept Turkey as a full member in 2024 (despite her ardent desire), demonstrates Turkey's failure to meet its stated goal of strengthening its global influence and forging ties with countries beyond its traditional Western allies.
The fact that Turkic states such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed a declaration of support for the UN resolutions that consider the declaration of independence of the so-called «Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus» (TRNC) illegal and strengthened their relations with the Republic of Cyprus by opening embassies in Nicosia, which is inconsistent with a country that is a major middle power and has a strong geopolitical role in the wider region us. It proves that although Turkey has strengthened its ties with Azerbaijan, has not been able to control the Organization of Turkic States and that its influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus is not as great as it claims.

In relation to Turkey's participation in European defence, which is a sensitive issue that concerns all of Europe and will be discussed in the coming period, it should be noted that despite Turkey's efforts (for four years), and the pressure in friendly countries (e.g. Germany), this objective has not yet been achieved and it is not certain whether and under what conditions it will be achieved.

It has not been achieved because of the strong stance of Greece and many of its allies who have reservations about such a prospect.. For the sake of argument, French President Macron is opposed to such a prospect and has openly disagreed with his German counterpart. In particular, Macron is in favour of a strictly European defence policy, arguing that the resources allocated should not be directed to armaments from third countries. He also argues that funding for European defence should be used to boost domestic production and reduce the EU's dependence on external suppliers.

Even if Turkey's participation in European defence is finally decided, this development is not a victory for Turkey, but a defeat for Europe.

It is a defeat for Europe because it proves that Europe in an era of world-changing geopolitical developments lacks a clear and coherent strategy for European defence and security and also states inability to develop its defence industry on its own resorting to the help of third countries.

Although the issue is under negotiation, the intention to take final decisions by qualified majority rather than unanimity is unprecedented in Europe and indicates a degeneration of Europe's value structure and operating system.

Finally, if this development happens, it will prove the European leaders' ignorance of danger, since they will put Turkey, which is Russia's Trojan Horse, on their heels.

To summarise the above analysis, it should be noted that Turkey, despite some occasional successes through the projection of its military power and its aggressive and active diplomacy, is not a credible middle power and lacks the geopolitical power that its propaganda mechanisms try to project.

Its geopolitical role is questioned by major players in the region (Israel, France, India, etc.), and depends on the current circumstances and the geopolitical correlations of the major players in the international system.

In conclusion, it would be good for those who comment on Foreign Policy and Defence and Security issues to be a little more careful in what they say and what they write.

You should, not to act as transmitters of Turkish propaganda, reproducing a well-argued propaganda myth about Turkey's geopolitical upgrading.

Dr. Konstantinos P. Balomenos

Political Scientist – International Relations Specialist
Former Director General - General Directorate General of National Defence Policy and International Relations (DGPEADS), Ministry of National Defence (MoNDA)

Author of the article:

Constantine Balomenos

Political Scientist – International Relations Specialist
Former Director General - Directorate General
National Defense and International Relations Policy (GDPAAD)
Ministry of National Defense (YPETHA)