Mosialos: Why it would be dangerous if the new strain of the coronavirus were to spread

Two independent studies, which were pre-published in a medical research database medRxiv, they reached the alarming conclusion that The new «British» variant of the coronavirus is indeed significantly more contagious, at least by 50%, as noted by the «Nature.».

The first study, by the Eric Volz and Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, analyzed nearly 2,000 genomes of the new variant of the coronavirus (VOC 202012/01), which were collected at the Britain between October and December. In addition, the results of approximately 275,000 tests conducted in the United Kingdom in late 2020 were analyzed. Scientists concluded that the new variant is approximately 50% more transmissible than the others identified so far.

The second study, led by Nicholas Davis of the London School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, ...also analyzed genetic and other data regarding the spread of the new variant in the UK in late 2020. It reached a similar conclusion that the new variant is 56% more transmissible, although there is no evidence that it causes more severe disease. COVID-19.

A variation of it SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, if 50% is indeed more contagious, it would pose a much greater problem than even a variant that would increase the virus’s mortality rate by 50%, as pointed out by the Elias Mosialos, professor of health policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in a new post on Facebook.

As he explains, let’s assume we are studying a region where 10,000 people have been infected with the virus. Suppose that the reproduction number R is equal to 1, that the mortality risk from the infection is 0.6%, and that the incubation period for a new symptomatic infection is six days. There will then be 10,000 × 1^5 × 0.6 % = 60 new deaths after one month.

If the variant increased mortality by 50%, then we would expect 10,000 × 1^5 × (0.6% × 1.5) = 90 new deaths after one month. However, if we assume that the variant increases transmissibility by 50%, then we would expect 10,000 × (1 × 1.5)^ 5 x 0.6% = 456 new deaths after one month. The above calculations are based on estimates of the Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the figures are indicative.

That is why, according to Mr. Mosialos, «It is ”better” for the mortality rate caused by a coronavirus variant to increase by 50% than for the transmissibility of a variant to increase by 50%.». «It is, therefore, important to monitor the spread within the community, and that is why Tests are very important. ». We need to try to be patient for a little while longer and remain just as careful," the professor concludes.