Ο Kyriakos Mitsotakis In his recent interview with Star, when asked about the possibility of early elections, He categorically rejected it. Hidden within his analysis was a piece of news that foreshadowed the next moves across the political chessboard. The prime minister, by saying that The choice in the upcoming elections will be «Mitsotakis or Tsipras» –his full statement was «At the end of this four-year term, the citizens will decide and compare Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s four-year term with Alexis Tsipras’s previous four-year term»–, clearly ruled out the possibility of forming a government after the first election through a coalition, with parties from either the center or the right, and has already set the tone for the upcoming election campaign, which will be marked by tough, dilemmatic, and personality-driven dynamics.

Mitsotakis’s strategy for dealing with this particular dilemma had become apparent during the latest clash in Parliament, where he launched a fierce attack on the Fofi Gennimata and compared it to the Alexis Tsipras. Essentially, The prime minister has long since stopped considering Ms. Gennimata—or her successor—a potential future coalition partner, following the example of the Samaras-Venizelos government, even under a simple proportional representation system, and frames the political landscape around the «Mitsotakis–Tsipras» dichotomy. This strategy, among other things, in the long term «strangles» KINAL politically —“they say at the Maximos Mansion”—and it provides more support to New Democracy, because The vast majority of KINAL voters view Mr. Mitsotakis favorably. Consequently, in a highly polarized political climate where the choice will be «Mitsotakis or Tsipras,» New Democracy will further absorb the electoral base of the current KINAL, creating tendencies toward disintegration within the party.

In such a case, the same sources add, Mr. Tsipras would also benefit by extension, as it is very likely that A portion of KINAL’s support—small but real—will shift toward SYRIZA in a polarized political climate. At the same time, the prime minister is almost certain—according to his aides—that the first election will not result in the formation of a government. For that to happen, New Democracy would have to win at least 43% —depending on how many parties enter Parliament—which is highly unlikely, or the remaining parties would have to form a government. This, too, seems highly unlikely. Consequently Mr. Mitsotakis is already laying the groundwork for a strategy involving two elections, which we will begin discussing in September 2022 and beyond.

In this strategy of Mitsotakis, Mr. Tsipras has a major disadvantage, say New Democracy officials. He is trapped by the simple proportional representation system, since he himself voted for it. Consequently, in the first election, the prime minister can go straight for a hard-line, black-and-white approach without relying on coalitions, since he opposed the simple proportional representation system from the outset. In contrast, Mr. Tsipras is, by nature and circumstance, compelled to use «progressive governance» as a “banner,” demonstrating that he in fact supports the choice of a proportional representation system. These counter-strategies could lead to a significant rallying of support for New Democracy and a fragmentation of SYRIZA, paving the way for another electoral victory for New Democracy. Mr. Tsipras is banking on the fact that, since no government will be formed after the first election, there will be a tendency for all parties to lose cohesion, and the deck will be reshuffled.

By Stavros Papantoniou