Greek tourism held up, despite the crisis in the Middle East

After several consecutive years of record-high performance, Greek tourism is entering 2026 amid heightened uncertainty, as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has highlighted the vulnerability of one of the key links in the tourism chain: air travel.

However, according to the latest issue of the «Business Trends» study series published by the Economic Analysis Department of the National Bank of Greece, the sector maintained expectations of a year of growth even at the height of the crisis, confirming the resilience of tourism demand. This finding is encouraging, but not reassuring: as geopolitical and energy disruptions become more frequent and persistent, proactive management of aviation risk is becoming a critical component of the country’s tourism strategy.

In this context, the NBG’s annual Business Climate Survey of Greek hotels takes on particular significance, as it was conducted at the height of the crisis, during April and May. The key message is that, even at the height of uncertainty, the industry’s expectations remained positive, pointing to sales growth of 3% in 2026, compared to 4.5% in 2025. This estimate actually appears conservative, as the sector’s confidence index has been improving since then, in line with the normalization of economic conditions. This positive outlook is also consistent with both international forecasts for European tourism—which point to a 3%-4% in 2026, as well as with air traffic at Greek airports, where flights for the May–August period are up by 3.6%, compared to approximately 1.6% in Europe.

However, this positive picture does not mean that Greek tourism has remained unaffected by geopolitical and energy turmoil. The rise in oil prices, which peaked in April at $120 per barrel, increased the cost of air travel, with jet fuel prices doubling, while also intensifying inflationary pressures in Europe, thereby reducing disposable income in key source markets. The NBG survey confirms that Greek hotel companies were more severely affected by the crisis than the rest of the business sector: 80% reported cost pressures, and nearly half acknowledged impacts on demand and investment planning, compared to 70% and 30%, respectively, for SMEs as a whole.

The fact that the crisis did not ultimately escalate into a serious disruption is due, to a large extent, to the fact that certain characteristics of the Greek tourism model proved supportive in this particular context. The high dependence on European markets (approximately 90% of overnight stays by foreign visitors, compared to about 80% in the Mediterranean) and the emphasis on the «sun-and-sea» concept bolstered demand, as European tourists showed an increased appetite for summer leisure travel to Mediterranean destinations. More critical, however, was the third structural factor: air connectivity. Due to the small domestic market and the geographical distance from key markets, a prolonged disruption in air travel could disproportionately harm Greek tourism. Ultimately, this risk did not materialize: initial fears of fuel shortages were not confirmed, and the spike in prices was brief and occurred at a time that allowed airlines to absorb some of the pressure through strategic cost-offsetting measures.

The lesson to be learned from the current situation is that, in an environment marked by more frequent geopolitical and energy-related upheavals, aviation risk management must be a critical tool of tourism policy. To illustrate the sector’s vulnerability to a prolonged disruption, the study examines indicative scenarios for the upcoming tourism season. In a low-pressure scenario, with oil prices near $80 per barrel through the first half of 2027, compared to $70 in 2025, the decline in tourism demand could reach 2 percentage points. In a scenario of prolonged disruption, with an average price of around $100 per barrel, the pressure could reach 5.5 percentage points.

This need takes on greater significance as efforts to transform the Greek tourism model are already underway. On the government’s part, measures are being promoted to address long-standing weaknesses, such as spatial planning and infrastructure. On the industry’s part, there is also greater maturity, as nearly half of all hotels view the resilience fee’s contribution to upgrading local infrastructure positively, while at the same time taking more proactive steps to capitalize on demand from distant markets.

In this context, air connectivity must be proactively safeguarded through a clear crisis management framework, with objective triggers, pre-agreed response protocols, and the ability to implement targeted, temporary interventions where necessary. Without robust air connectivity, broader efforts to upgrade the country’s tourism model risk being exposed at the first link in the chain —and, in fact, the one over which the country has the least direct control.