G. Magiorkinis: The pandemic is approaching endemicity

He expressed his optimism that the coronavirus pandemic is approaching an endemic phase—something he says is expected to be confirmed by spring— in an interview with FM Agency on Tania Mantouvalou’s show «104.9 HEALTH SECRETS,» Gikas Magiorkinis, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and member of the Ministry of Health’s Expert Committee, stated this in an interview with FM Agency and on Tania Mantouvalou’s show «104.9 HEALTH SECRETS.» “The circulation of COVID-19 remains at high levels, however, there is sufficient population immunity, as the number of people who have been infected (most of them in the last six months) or vaccinated exceeds 90%. “So there is a limit to how quickly it can spread, unlike other viruses, where the corresponding level of recent infection is low.”.

However, according to the mathematical models developed by the professor, the circulation of the virus is lower compared to the same period last year and the year before, despite the fact that there are no restrictions in place this year. Based on the data we’re seeing right now, the likelihood of a surge in December has decreased, says Mr. Magiorkinis, adding that the Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have reached Greece at a rate exceeding 25–30%. «I do not currently believe that, given their current profile, they will pose any particular problem, so I expect we will gradually downgrade their significance. At this time, we do not have any more virulent variants that are causing concern, so based on this data, we believe that for the time being, there does not appear to be any risk for the next one to two months.».

Regarding long COVID, Mr. Magiorkinis says that there is some very encouraging evidence from a few small studies, which suggest that booster shots may help reduce symptoms. As for vaccines, the renowned epidemiologist believes that the most promising news comes from the front of «pan-coronavirus» vaccines, which he estimates could be available within the next two years. «These vaccines, which are already in clinical trials, may target all coronaviruses. And that would mean they’ll also be more effective against coronavirus variants. They will be so broadly effective that they won’t need to be updated. They may be administered annually—or perhaps even less frequently—if they are as effective across such a broad spectrum as predicted. ’I think the people for whom we’re recommending them—that is, those over 60 and vulnerable groups—will benefit greatly.».

Below is the full text of the interview he gave to Praktorio FM and reporter Tania H. Gikas Magiorkinis, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and member of the Ministry of Health’s Committee of Experts, gave the following interview.

Q: Why are we seeing a bigger surge in all other viruses besides COVID right now?;

Answer: The spread of COVID-19 remains at high levels, however, there is sufficient herd immunity, as the proportion of people who have been infected (mostly in the last six months) or vaccinated exceeds 90%. So there is a limit to how quickly COVID-19 can spread, unlike other viruses, where the corresponding level of recent infection is low. And most adults do not get vaccinated against the flu. So we’re seeing an increase in the flu this year, as well as in other viruses, because over the past two years, due to the restrictions, people haven’t been exposed to these viruses, and consequently, there isn’t a high level of population immunity.

Q: So, are the flu and other respiratory viruses on the rise because the population lacked immunity in previous years?;

A: It’s a combination of a lack of immunity and a lack of preventive measures. So yes, it’s a matter of immunity over the past two years.

Q: Some of your colleagues refer to it as “immunity debt.”.

Answer: For some people, “immunological debt” means that a person needs to get certain viral infections, because if they get them later, they might have a more severe case. It’s a slightly different concept, and I don’t agree with it. However, there is an immunological gap (level of immunity) in the population due to the past two years. As a result, mathematical models predict an increase in the number of cases this year.

Q: What do mathematical models tell us about SARS-CoV-2 at this point in time?;

Answer: At this time of year, we’re seeing lower Covid transmission rates than during the same period last year and the year before, despite the fact that we have no restrictions in place. It appears that herd immunity has begun to take hold to a large extent, bringing us close to what we call endemicity. We expect this to be confirmed by spring. So far, the scenario unfolding is an optimistic one, though we cannot rule out the possibility that something completely unexpected might happen.

Q: Like a variant that isn't manageable? What is the latest information on the Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1? Has any other variant emerged anywhere in the world right now that is causing you concern?;

Re: In Greece, BQ.1 and BQ1.1 have reached levels above 25-30%. I do not currently believe that, given their current profile, they will pose any particular problem, so I expect we will gradually downgrade their significance. At this time, we do not have any more virulent variants that are causing concern, so based on this data, we believe that for the time being, there does not appear to be any risk for the next one to two months. As for the virus’s transmissibility in the community in general, it is certainly higher than it was in September, but lower than what we saw over the summer. Based on the data we are seeing right now, the likelihood of a surge in December has decreased.

Q: What is the latest information regarding long COVID? Might vaccine booster shots help alleviate symptoms?;

A: There is some very encouraging evidence from a few small studies suggesting that booster doses may help reduce symptoms. We don’t have large-scale studies to say with certainty that this is the case, but it is one of the most important data-driven scientific hypotheses we have.

Q: How close are we to having vaccines for the coronavirus, and who will they be for?;

Answer: It is extremely important that these vaccines, which may be effective against all coronaviruses, are now being tested in clinical trials. And this will mean that they will also be more effective against coronavirus variants. A great many studies have been launched at this stage, and I believe this is perhaps the most promising news we have from the vaccine front. That within the next one to two years, we may have vaccines that are so broadly effective that they won’t need to be updated.

Q: Are these expected to be annual?;

Answer: Yes, that’s the direction we’re heading in—perhaps at a slower pace, if they prove effective on such a large scale, as predicted. In any case, however, these vaccines are very safe and more effective than the flu shots we get every year. I think the people for whom we’re recommending them—that is, those over 60 and vulnerable groups—will benefit greatly.